Russell Investments senior strategist BeiChen Lin said the firm’s baseline assumes the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged this year. He warned that only materially stronger payrolls—e.g., more than twice consensus—combined with persisting lack of disinflation would prompt consideration of further hikes; based on this week’s labor data the firm expects the jobs market to be in a “normal” state rather than overheated or weak, which would be constructive for the Fed. Russell also sees investment

Russell Investments senior strategist BeiChen Lin said the firm’s baseline assumes the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged this year. He warned that only materially stronger payrolls—e.g., more than twice consensus—combined with persisting lack of disinflation would prompt consideration of further hikes; based on this week’s labor data the firm expects the jobs market to be in a “normal” state rather than overheated or weak, which would be constructive for the Fed. Russell also sees investment value across the US Treasury yield curve.