Bernstein says markets may have overread Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks as explicitly hawkish; Warsh stressed scaling back forward guidance, which could make it harder to infer the Fed’s rate path from a single speech and increase volatility in policy expectations. Warsh also flagged that more than half of this year’s capex growth may be AI-related; near-term AI spending will lift demand for capital, power and equipment, while longer-term productivity gains could alter potential gr

Bernstein says markets may have overread Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks as explicitly hawkish; Warsh stressed scaling back forward guidance, which could make it harder to infer the Fed’s rate path from a single speech and increase volatility in policy expectations. Warsh also flagged that more than half of this year’s capex growth may be AI-related; near-term AI spending will lift demand for capital, power and equipment, while longer-term productivity gains could alter potential growth — the Fed must weigh both effects. Bernstein did not rule out “currency-debasement” trades: it views US high debt, large deficits and rising interest-service costs as structural risks, and says if the US Treasury continues to intervene in long-end yields, scarce assets such as gold and bitcoin could find support. (Source: JP Morgan report, Sept. 2)