Thomas Ryan of Capital Economics said details in August’s jobs report mean the BOC’s slightly unexpected hawkish pivot this week may now look premature. Employment fell 41,700 in August; unemployment held at 6.4%. Wage growth slowed to 2.0% YoY, the weakest 12‑month pace since 2021. Ryan said both Capital Economics and the BOC view the Canadian economy as having spare capacity, and that the August labour-market data should curb market pricing for an immediate BOC rate hike.

2026-09-04

Thomas Ryan of Capital Economics said details in August’s jobs report mean the BOC’s slightly unexpected hawkish pivot this week may now look premature. Employment fell 41,700 in August; unemployment held at 6.4%. Wage growth slowed to 2.0% YoY, the weakest 12‑month pace since 2021. Ryan said both Capital Economics and the BOC view the Canadian economy as having spare capacity, and that the August labour-market data should curb market pricing for an immediate BOC rate hike.