Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., says the 10-year US Treasury yield faces key resistance at 4.8%; a sustained move above that level could have material cross-asset effects. He cites widening fiscal deficits, large-scale debt issuance and corporate borrowing stress as upward pressure on long-term yields, and says Treasury verbal interventions have not yet driven yields lower. A sustained breach of the Jan 2025 4.8% peak would be particularly concerning because it could s

Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., says the 10-year US Treasury yield faces key resistance at 4.8%; a sustained move above that level could have material cross-asset effects. He cites widening fiscal deficits, large-scale debt issuance and corporate borrowing stress as upward pressure on long-term yields, and says Treasury verbal interventions have not yet driven yields lower. A sustained breach of the Jan 2025 4.8% peak would be particularly concerning because it could signal fiscal worries are overwhelming policymakers' ability to influence borrowing costs. Chen Yanting, general manager of Noah Ark Hong Kong, warns a continued rise above 4.8% could force repricing of long-duration exposures — ultra-long Treasuries, high-valuation growth stocks, commercial real estate and some private assets — as investors demand higher compensation for long-term debt. He prefers gold and hard-currency hedges, recommends underweighting ultra-long Treasuries, and retains allocations to quality equities, physical assets and AI-related infrastructure (power, grids, storage, data centers).