China's long-slumping hog market has shown a recent rebound. In the final week
of August national live hog prices rose for a third consecutive week; last week
wholesale pork averaged 16.22 yuan/kg, up 0.7% WoW and down 17.9% YoY.
Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs across 200 wholesale
markets shows supply remains ample to slightly excessive; last week's modest
price rise reflected slaughterhouse throughput controls rather than a shortage
of hogs, according to Xinfadi market statistics manager Liu Tong. Market
participants are cautiously optimistic: some forecasters expect accelerated sow
culling in Q3 and see a potential profitability turnaround in 2027. In futures,
long-dated hog contracts trade materially above near-month contracts. Pork-price
recovery is plausible but expectations should be restrained.
