Stephen Zunes, founding director of Middle East Studies at the University of San
Francisco, says Iran will find it difficult to enforce an exclusion zone near
the Strait of Hormuz and it is hard to see how Tehran could compel compliance;
Iranian vessels and aircraft attempting enforcement would be highly vulnerable
to U.S. strikes. He says the move may be more a warning — shipping firms still
face risk and cannot assume consequence-free transits — and Tehran may be
seeking to provoke a broader U.S. military response, which could provide a
pretext for attacks on neighboring states and U.S. regional facilities,
potentially eroding U.S. public support for sustained conflict while
consolidating domestic unity amid worsening economic strain.
