Panama Canal administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta warned drought could force further reductions in daily transits to as low as 27 ships in coming months, below the current constrained level of 32. The potential cut is based on Panama Canal Authority simulations using 1997 (the driest year on record) rainfall patterns and described as a "worst-case" scenario; climate change is shortening the return period for severe low-water events to roughly every three years. The canal, which handles more than

Panama Canal administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta warned drought could force further reductions in daily transits to as low as 27 ships in coming months, below the current constrained level of 32. The potential cut is based on Panama Canal Authority simulations using 1997 (the driest year on record) rainfall patterns and described as a "worst-case" scenario; climate change is shortening the return period for severe low-water events to roughly every three years. The canal, which handles more than 3% of global trade, saw transit demand surge earlier this year amid Middle East tensions, pushing daily usage above its typical 36 ships (spikes to about 40) and raising passage costs via the authority's daily auction. Authorities reduced daily transits to 32 from mid‑September to avoid stricter limits during the Dec–Apr dry season; a further cut toward 27 would intensify pressure on global shipping capacity and freight costs already strained by recent geopolitical disruptions.