CITIC Securities reports Senate races remain tight while House contests are
leaning more against Republicans, where a small number of seat flips could
change control. A mid‑June ceasefire and falling oil briefly eased public
pressure, but a late‑June breakdown of a U.S.‑Iran preliminary agreement
coincided with Trump hitting a historic low in August. If Republicans lose the
midterms, CITIC says Washington political stalemate would likely deepen, raising
resistance to the Trump administration’s policy agenda and increasing the risk
of a government shutdown and a debt‑ceiling confrontation.
