CITIC Securities says the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is in a base-building
phase awaiting incremental inflows. Valuation and sentiment bottoms were
reconfirmed in a late‑August retest and Sept. 2 volume validated willingness of
new capital to enter. H1 double‑digit growth and a sharp rise in contract
liabilities provide fundamental support; buybacks, accelerated stake purchases
and stronger demand for recent listings are improving capital structure. Further
upside depends on three catalysts: rollout of index products (BSE 50 ETF and
three‑month lock‑up thematic funds) with turnover sustained above CNY20 bln;
potential policy measures around the BSE’s fifth anniversary on Nov. 15; and
broader confirmation that secondary-market support for recent listings is
durable, which would reinforce primary IPO demand and secondary performance.
Tactical guidance: favor cyclical growth and valuation-repair themes, buy on
dips and scale in while tracking volume and policy signals for opportunistic
adds.
