New York Fed Center for Microeconomic Data August 2026 consumer expectations
survey (Aug 3–31): median 1-year inflation expectation fell to 3.58% from 3.63%;
short- and long-term inflation expectations unchanged. Median 1-year house‑price
growth expectation down 0.2ppt to 3.0%, led by Northeast respondents. One‑year
gasoline price expectation rose 1.7ppt to 4.6%; food to 5.3% (+0.3ppt); medical
to 9.1% (+0.2ppt); college costs to 6.1% (+0.3ppt); rent to 6.6% (+0.7ppt).
Median 1-year income growth expectation edged up 0.1ppt to 2.9%. Average
probability that the unemployment rate will be higher in one year rose 1.6ppt to
44.4%, the highest since April 2020.
