Gartner projects the global ERP market will rise from $65.3bn in 2024 to
$126.1bn in 2030, but Bernstein says new spending will concentrate on AI agents.
From 2026–2030, simple AI-agent ERP is forecast to grow 66.3% and
advanced/autonomous AI-agent ERP 95.0%, while traditional ERP excluding
generative AI is expected to shrink 30.1%. Bernstein says AI-native vendors are
targeting high-friction workflows—financial close, accounts payable, revenue
recognition, purchase requisitions and HR services—without replacing SAP or
Oracle. By controlling the UI, workflow orchestration and task execution they
can capture the fastest-growing, highest-monetization segments of the ERP
market. Bernstein expects incumbents to retain transaction data, permissions,
audit and compliance layers while AI-native firms handle top-layer interaction
and execution, pointing to a coexistence model. The report flags a long-term
risk to SAP, Oracle and Microsoft of ERP moving to the backend and being
accessed via external AI agents.
