Some Iranian leaders judge that, regardless of US midterm results, Trump could
renew military action after the vote; analysts say a win would embolden him,
while a loss could leave him with little to lose and sustain his strategy.
Farzan Sabet, an Iran analyst at the University of Frankfurt and the Graduate
Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva), says a
deteriorating global economy could eventually force the Trump administration to
ease tensions. He notes US Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz have
enabled some oil shipments, but global crude inventories are rebuilding too
slowly and gas and refined-product flows remain constrained; those supply
shortfalls could further dent the global economy. Sabet expects the parties may
gravitate toward a limited or de facto, downscaled agreement rather than an
expanded memorandum of understanding.
