Marex FX joint head of FX trading and head of private markets Jonathan Pryor
warned in a report that the ECB could be left on the back foot after Thursday’s
rate decision. He said if the ECB misreads the move as a one-off hike and is
overtaken by higher-rate G10 central banks, it could cause lasting reputational
damage for Lagarde and the ECB. Pryor added the ECB faces the added challenge of
coordinating policy while managing volatile sovereign bond spreads across member
states — a risk that is often overlooked. Any ECB commentary on bond markets
will therefore be important, he said, because the topic is normally avoided but
will be central to the coming months’ challenges.
