Major banks and a Reuters survey largely expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp hike
at the upcoming meeting; markets will be watching forward guidance and odds of
further tightening more than the decision itself. Goldman Sachs: base case 25bp
and end of this tightening cycle after September, but risk of a December hike
rises if energy prices stay high, inflation re-accelerates or the Fed tightens
further. ING: expects a 25bp hike but characterizes it as dovish — post-hike
signals likely insufficient to justify market-priced further tightening. Société
Générale: 25bp with a relatively hawkish stance to counter energy-driven
inflation. Reuters survey: 25bp then a stop, with the deposit rate staying at
2.50% through end‑2026. Danske Bank: 25bp; Lagarde will keep flexibility without
committing to a path and is unlikely to explicitly try to suppress tightening
expectations. Deutsche Bank: 25bp and a further hike in December is likely;
2.75% is a more probable terminal rate unless geopolitics ease and growth
weakens, which could cap rates at 2.5%. Natixis: 25bp, followed by neutral
messaging to avoid implying a long hike cycle; expects a pause until end‑2027.
RABOBANK: 25bp with more restrained guidance and no push toward a ~3% terminal
rate. SEB: 25bp and likely the last hike of the cycle, though uncertainty
remains; persistently above‑target inflation is unlikely, supporting a prolonged
pause. BNP Paribas SA: sees potential hikes in September and December if growth
and inflation forecasts are revised up at the September meeting. MUFG: 25bp
fully priced; market reaction will hinge on forward guidance — lack of clear
support for a year‑end hike would likely weaken the euro. State Street Global:
ECB may pair a 25bp increase with intentionally open signals; key questions are
whether 2.50% is judged sufficiently restrictive and whether the bank preserves
policy space for December.
