ECB staff are set to raise growth forecasts for this year and next to reflect economic resilience, but with inflation still above 3% the bank may delay the return to its 2% target; in June it had projected hitting 2% by next summer. The new outlook may understate the impact of the recent energy-price spike, particularly in natural gas. Barclays says current gas prices sit between its adverse and severe shock scenarios and that gas shocks transmit to non-energy inflation more slowly than oil but

ECB staff are set to raise growth forecasts for this year and next to reflect economic resilience, but with inflation still above 3% the bank may delay the return to its 2% target; in June it had projected hitting 2% by next summer. The new outlook may understate the impact of the recent energy-price spike, particularly in natural gas. Barclays says current gas prices sit between its adverse and severe shock scenarios and that gas shocks transmit to non-energy inflation more slowly than oil but with larger, more persistent effects.