New York copper futures fell more than 4.00% intraday, trading at $6.5875/lb.

The Trump administration will deliver $500 refunds by direct deposit to up to 1 million people across 30 states, saying they were overcharged under the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Payments are scheduled to arrive before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The administration is concurrently promoting its tax-cut legislation and prescription-drug plan as generating cost savings.

ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate 25bps to 2.50% — the move is already fully priced; markets will treat President Lagarde's press conference as the main source of new information. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% YoY in August, with energy and geopolitics pushing gas to the highest levels since 2022; core and services inflation are continuing to slow, while economic activity has shown surprising resilience. The hike will put the deposit rate at the top of the ECB's estimated neutral range. Statement language is unlikely to change materially; meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent wording and the current risk-balance framing are expected to remain. Lagarde's tone is the critical market pivot: a hawkish tone would underline a persistent energy shock, upside inflation risks and scope for further tightening; a dovish tone would stress easing core/services inflation and risks of over-tightening via tighter financial conditions. Prognosis for forecasts: markets expect upward revisions to growth; inflation outlooks diverge — Goldman Sachs sees modest 2026 downside but brings 2027 headline inflation up to 2.7% (core 2.6%); UniCredit leans hawkish; MUFG flags 2026 revisions and warns forecasts may be outdated. Key policy question is whether September marks the end of the hiking cycle — MUFG and ING lean terminal in September, while Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and UniCredit see material upside risk if energy prices remain high; most banks do not expect an explicit commitment to further hikes. Market pricing implies ~48bps more tightening by year-end and ~85bps by end-2027; a dovish Lagarde could prompt downshifts in tightening expectations and pressure the euro, while a hawkish signal would be needed to support EUR. Near-term risk: US CPI and the FOMC could quickly re-center market attention and dominate EUR/USD and global rates moves.