ECB President Lagarde said discussions were focused on today’s decision and did not discuss the future path of interest rates.

U.S. August producer prices matched analysts’ expectations, rising 0.4% MoM. Market attention shifts to tomorrow’s CPI print. CME’s FedWatch tool shows market-implied odds of a September rate hike near 70%. After the CPI release, economists will update forecasts for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index. If CPI comes in below expectations, that would further support a view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zaccarelli said: "Although a hike at the October meeting is possible, the odds of the Fed starting a new tightening cycle are extremely low."

U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there is a 75% probability that Oct–Dec 2026 will see a record-strong El Niño, with intensity projected to exceed any El Niño event since 1950.