Even partial Houthi disruption of Bab el-Mandeb has already had material market
impact. Since late-2023 Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea and Bab
el-Mandeb—framed as support for Palestinians in Gaza—prompted major shipping and
oil companies to bypass the Suez Canal and reroute around Africa. If Houthis
further choke the strait, Iran could secure a strategic advantage versus the US
in any wider conflict; Kpler shows June volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb
accounted for roughly 7% of global oil production.
