UK three-month GDP monthly rate for July +0.4% MoM (consensus +0.3%), prior +0.4%.

Benedict Kukla, chief investment strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said in a report the ECB’s apparent sole focus on an energy supply shock is surprising. He said the bank has underweighted still-fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation, and has not fully accounted for tightening in bond market rates. While the ECB retains credibility on inflation, Kukla warned there is a risk of over-tightening that could choke a nascent economic recovery.

A rebound in gasoline prices after two months of declines could push US August CPI MoM higher, reinforcing markets' expectations of a Fed rate hike next week. The Labor Department will publish August CPI on Friday; several key components of Thursday's PPI report were strong. Some economists say oil returning above $100/bbl will keep inflation elevated and broaden price pressures, while others point to import tariffs—notably recent tariffs on Canada—as a continuing source of upward price pressure.