Analyst Mike Cahill said next week’s CPI print could determine whether the Fed moves. A stronger, broad-based CPI could force action because it would depart from the policy framework Williams and Waller outlined this summer; a weaker print should allow the Fed to hold rates without triggering adverse market reaction. A mid-range outcome is trickier, since markets are uneasy about inflation near 2.5% while the Fed remains on hold. Cahill said recent dollar weakness reflects the Fed’s tilt to keep

Analyst Mike Cahill said next week’s CPI print could determine whether the Fed moves. A stronger, broad-based CPI could force action because it would depart from the policy framework Williams and Waller outlined this summer; a weaker print should allow the Fed to hold rates without triggering adverse market reaction. A mid-range outcome is trickier, since markets are uneasy about inflation near 2.5% while the Fed remains on hold. Cahill said recent dollar weakness reflects the Fed’s tilt to keep rates unchanged and the Treasury’s preference to let FX markets absorb adjustment rather than shift pressure onto the U.S. fixed-income market.