Analyst Brandon Brown says after a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print markets currently price roughly 15bp of tightening for the September Fed meeting. Citing Fed governor Waller's comment that the next inflation print will determine his vote, Brown says a ~50/50 market probability for a September hike before those data is reasonable. He sees renewed dissent on the Fed's policy panel likely, especially if inflation proves mild and the Fed remains on hold. Based on PPI/CPI pass-through

Analyst Brandon Brown says after a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print markets currently price roughly 15bp of tightening for the September Fed meeting. Citing Fed governor Waller's comment that the next inflation print will determine his vote, Brown says a ~50/50 market probability for a September hike before those data is reasonable. He sees renewed dissent on the Fed's policy panel likely, especially if inflation proves mild and the Fed remains on hold. Based on PPI/CPI pass-through to core PCE, the threshold to support hikes versus holding is around 0.25% MoM core PCE. Long-end market pricing implies cumulative tightening slightly above 60bp by mid-2027. Even with strong data, Brown judges more than three rate hikes in the near term unlikely.