On Friday Dutch and UK wholesale gas benchmarks eased from their highest levels
since end-2022, but markets remain concerned Europe may not secure enough LNG to
refill storage ahead of winter, a support for prices. Commerzbank raised its
year‑end TTF forecast by 50% to €75/MWh, saying Q4 may gradually ease and the
market will focus on inventory levels and supply security rather than a formal
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Gas Infrastructure Europe reports EU gas
storage at 67.64%, 16.2 percentage points below the five‑year average. Bernstein
says restoring storage to the five‑year average of ~90% by early November would
require >100 TWh of additional injections, costing roughly €7bn at current
prices — a fill rate Europe has not attempted since the 2022 crisis.