Preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 47.8, down
for a second month but by fewer than 4 index points. Expectations for personal
finances and business conditions over the next year fell sharply; Democrats and
Republicans both showed large declines while independents were little changed.
Consumers cited a rebound in fuel prices and rising trade tensions, saying they
expect greater wallet pressure ahead. Five-year expectations for business
conditions were unchanged but remain far below historical averages. Overall
sentiment is about 16% below February levels before the Iran conflict and 13%
below a year ago. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the
highest since June and above the February pre-Iran 3.4% and all prior 2024
readings. Long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%, ending a
three-month flat stretch and remaining above the 2.8–3.2% range seen earlier in
2024.
