Goldman Sachs says its end-2026 fair‑value gold forecast of $4,900/oz carries a net upside risk, though the path will be two‑way and more volatile. The forecast assumes continued strong central-bank demand. If ETF inflows resume and current elevated call-option positioning persists, dealer hedging could mechanically amplify rallies and push prices well above fair value. Conversely, a renewed rise in Fed rate-hike expectations could trigger dealer hedge unwind and produce sharper-than-usual pullb

Goldman Sachs says its end-2026 fair‑value gold forecast of $4,900/oz carries a net upside risk, though the path will be two‑way and more volatile. The forecast assumes continued strong central-bank demand. If ETF inflows resume and current elevated call-option positioning persists, dealer hedging could mechanically amplify rallies and push prices well above fair value. Conversely, a renewed rise in Fed rate-hike expectations could trigger dealer hedge unwind and produce sharper-than-usual pullbacks.