China International Capital Co said the Fed should raise rates in September to preserve its credibility, calling that the decisive factor for policy. The firm said July FOMC member Waller’s deliberate ambiguity confused markets and helped push the US Treasury term premium from 0.65% at end-July to 0.9% by mid-August, forcing hawkish language at Jackson Hole. While softer data would have given the Fed room to wait, successive stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and inflation have increasingly

China International Capital Co said the Fed should raise rates in September to preserve its credibility, calling that the decisive factor for policy. The firm said July FOMC member Waller’s deliberate ambiguity confused markets and helped push the US Treasury term premium from 0.65% at end-July to 0.9% by mid-August, forcing hawkish language at Jackson Hole. While softer data would have given the Fed room to wait, successive stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and inflation have increasingly cornered policymakers. The report warned that if the Fed again refrains from hiking, markets may view prior hawkish signals as hollow, risking a deeper credibility crisis and loss of control in the Treasury market.