Monday morning, a Middle East supply shock pushed oil sharply higher and lifted UK gilt yields across the curve to multi‑year highs. LSEG data show the 30‑year gilt yield briefly reached 5.951% — the highest since March 1998 — while the 5‑year yield hit its highest level since July 2008. Investors are pricing a gradual Bank of England tightening over the next year as oil‑driven inflation risks rise, further eroding the buffer between current budget plans and fiscal rules. Short‑dated gilts under

Monday morning, a Middle East supply shock pushed oil sharply higher and lifted UK gilt yields across the curve to multi‑year highs. LSEG data show the 30‑year gilt yield briefly reached 5.951% — the highest since March 1998 — while the 5‑year yield hit its highest level since July 2008. Investors are pricing a gradual Bank of England tightening over the next year as oil‑driven inflation risks rise, further eroding the buffer between current budget plans and fiscal rules. Short‑dated gilts underperformed comparable sovereigns, a pattern amplified by the oil/gas spike and reflecting the UK’s energy import sensitivity. Sahil Mahtani, head of research at Ninety One, said markets are treating this as a UK inflation problem and demanding materially higher compensation for UK inflation risk, which helps explain the sell‑off that cannot be written off as merely external factors.