Research shows the Iran conflict has driven wholesale power and gas prices higher; UK household energy bills are expected to jump about 25% in January, adding to inflationary pressure. The report forecasts energy-driven inflation could lift UK CPI above 4% next year, roughly double the Bank of England's 2% target. Ofgem's price cap is expected to rise by about £427, taking a typical household annual bill to roughly £2,150 — close to the £2,500 cap introduced after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock,

Research shows the Iran conflict has driven wholesale power and gas prices higher; UK household energy bills are expected to jump about 25% in January, adding to inflationary pressure. The report forecasts energy-driven inflation could lift UK CPI above 4% next year, roughly double the Bank of England's 2% target. Ofgem's price cap is expected to rise by about £427, taking a typical household annual bill to roughly £2,150 — close to the £2,500 cap introduced after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, when the government covered the gap with state aid costing around £21bn. The government is considering further measures, including expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to currently ineligible groups such as some disabled people, carers and pensioners; any measures could be announced in the October budget and take effect this winter.