Canada July building permits m/m -17.3% (consensus -6.4%); June revised to 18.3% from 18.5%.

Equities: JP Morgan says a hold would likely push the S&P 500 down 1.25%–1.75%; a 25bp hike with no forward guidance would lift the index 0.25%–0.75%. Yardeni Research expects 2–3 additional hikes ahead, raising volatility. MacroRiskAdvisors warns a Fed hiking cycle could trigger an 8%–10% S&P drawdown. Goldman Sachs sees 25–50bp hikes as unlikely to derail corporate capex or market resilience. UBS says limited tightening and resilient growth leave fundamentals intact and supports further S&P upside, citing continued AI-led investment demand. Dollar: OCBC notes oil, higher Treasury yields and weaker risk appetite support the dollar short term but says further upside requires Fed to preserve tightening optionality. Scotiabank warns an unexpected hold would materially weaken the USD; a hike without clear commitment to follow-up tightening could also weigh. Standard Chartered says a hold may dent the dollar and long-end yields near term but won’t change a medium-term dollar-positive view; a 25bp hike would bolster Fed anti-inflation credibility and stabilize USD and long yields. Brown Brothers Harriman says much tightening is already priced, limiting upside from hawkish signals while dovish outcomes pose larger downside risk. TD Securities flags buy-the-rumor/sell-the-fact risk: the dot plot’s signal on subsequent hikes, not the 25bp itself, will determine USD direction; a dot-plot that implies an October hike would extend dollar gains. Treasuries and gold: ING says the 10-year could retest 5% regardless of today’s move as real yields rise. Sprott does not see a rate move changing the long-term spot-gold trend; tightening is mostly priced, so any pullback should be limited and short-lived, while a hold could spark a rebound. BofA says a hawkish Fed reinforcing anti-inflation credibility could lift the 2-year by ~5–10bps and push the 30-year down a similar amount; a dovish outcome could see the 2-year fall ~5bps and the 30-year rise ~5bps.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng wrote in Qiushi that growth in China’s financial aggregates has slowed, which supports keeping macro leverage broadly stable. He said the recent rapid rise in macro leverage reflected countercyclical policy that boosted financial aggregate and debt growth while low inflation weighed on nominal GDP. The financing market has shifted from supply constraints to demand constraints; effective financing demand can be met and social financing conditions remain relatively loose. He urged balancing short- and long-term aims and warned against financial aggregate growth outpacing real-economy demand, which could create idle funds, lift macro leverage further, impede clearance of excess capacity and inefficient firms, and hurt economic efficiency.