HSBC said a weak Australian housing market will drag on growth and aid the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts to return inflation to the 2–3% target
range. In a Thursday research note, Paul Bloxham said the property downturn
cools the economy via several channels, with the negative wealth effect most
significant; a 5% fall in house prices typically reduces consumer spending by
about 0.8% over two years. RBA Governor Bullock has said the three rate hikes
from February to May were intended to slow growth to ease price pressures.
Economists and traders see the RBA as capable of another hike as soon as the end
of this month, potentially lifting the cash rate to 4.6% and exerting further
downward pressure on house prices.