Container shipping index (Europe route) front-month contract rose more than 5.0% intraday to 2,152.5 points.

Major houses expect the Bank of England to hold rates tonight in a 'hawkish pause', with vote splits likely around 6-3; rising energy prices are the main risk to that call. BNP Paribas now forecasts a 25bp hike in November (previously September). Refinitiv survey: economists expect a September hold and see cuts, not hikes, as more likely next year. Evercore ISI warns rates markets price roughly 4.5 hikes next year while the BOE remains reluctant to tighten. Goldman says market pricing is too hawkish and expects rates unchanged through the rest of 2026, with cuts beginning in 2027. Citigroup now expects 25bp moves in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 (previously saw unchanged policy to Q2 2027). JP Morgan expects a hold tonight to avoid reinforcing rapid-tightening bets but flags a possible November hike if energy-driven inflation peaks around 3.9% in Feb. Franklin Templeton views gilts as attractive given a cooling labor market and softer growth, implying policy may be looser than markets price. HSBC sees no clear evidence of changed MPC voting intentions and expects the hold faction to remain the majority. ING expects a 6-3 hold at 3.75% on Sep.17 and two cuts next year (Apr and Nov) though timing could slip; it also expects quantitative tightening to slow to about £50bln over the next 12 months from £70bln last year. Danske's base case is no rate change until Q2 2027 before cuts resume, but it notes persistent high energy prices and resilient activity could still force hikes even without broad-based inflation. Oxford Economics judges second-round inflation risks limited, leaving room to hold; it expects a minority of hawks to push for hikes while most MPC members remain patient.

Rajappa, head of U.S. research at Societe Generale, said he expects Fed chair Kevin Warsh to stick with the messaging delivered at Jackson Hole.