美聯儲施密德：我同意沃什主席關於債券收益率上升原因的分析框架——經濟增長、人工智能投資帶來的資本需求以及地緣政治挑戰。

Bai Xue, senior deputy director at Oriental Jincheng, said on Sept. 18 the odds of one more Fed rate hike this year have risen materially, but this does not signal the start of a sustained consecutive‑hike cycle. She cited three drivers: the US economy is resilient but shows pronounced K‑shaped divergence, household savings are low and consumption sustainability is weakening, and the AI investment cycle may soften. Long‑end US Treasury yields are near 2007 highs, producing a spontaneous tightening in financial conditions that is materially constraining rate‑sensitive sectors, so the Fed must weigh cumulative tightening effects. The intended purpose of the move is to anchor inflation expectations and guard against re‑anchoring—a tactical, phase‑specific adjustment rather than system‑wide tightening to counter an overheating economy or wage‑price spiral. Current inflation appears a cyclical rebound, not a sustained wage‑price loop, and fundamentals do not support prolonged hikes. If a September hike is implemented and December inflation remains strong, another hike is possible; thereafter the Fed would observe inflation progress at a 4.00%–4.25% policy range before deciding whether to hold, tighten further or pivot to cuts.

An EU spokesperson said an EU-Canada summit will be held at the end of October to discuss frameworks for strengthening bilateral relations.