JP Morgan sees upside risk to South Korea rates and expects the Bank of Korea to hike in Nov, Feb and May to a terminal 3.75%, above economists’ median of 3.5%. The bank forecasts Korean GDP growth of 3.8% this year and 3.3% next year and says a semiconductor boom could boost investment, exports, wages and domestic demand. JP Morgan expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates at 3% on Oct. 22 but warns stronger domestic demand and persistent core inflation could push the terminal rate above 3.75%.

2026-09-21

JP Morgan sees upside risk to South Korea rates and expects the Bank of Korea to hike in Nov, Feb and May to a terminal 3.75%, above economists’ median of 3.5%. The bank forecasts Korean GDP growth of 3.8% this year and 3.3% next year and says a semiconductor boom could boost investment, exports, wages and domestic demand. JP Morgan expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates at 3% on Oct. 22 but warns stronger domestic demand and persistent core inflation could push the terminal rate above 3.75%.

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