BARCLAYS economists say Bank of Japan Governor UEDA mixed hawkish and dovish comments at last week’s press conference to preserve policy flexibility, and the BOJ has not formed a clear view on the timing of the next rate increase. BARCLAYS expects further hikes in January and July next year, taking the terminal rate to 1.75%. BARCLAYS adds the government may appoint dovish board members after two hawkish members’ terms end in July 2027, which would strengthen the BOJ’s tendency to maintain the s

2026-09-21

BARCLAYS economists say Bank of Japan Governor UEDA mixed hawkish and dovish comments at last week’s press conference to preserve policy flexibility, and the BOJ has not formed a clear view on the timing of the next rate increase. BARCLAYS expects further hikes in January and July next year, taking the terminal rate to 1.75%. BARCLAYS adds the government may appoint dovish board members after two hawkish members’ terms end in July 2027, which would strengthen the BOJ’s tendency to maintain the status quo over time.