OECD says the global economy is stronger than expected, but risks are mounting.

Wall Street strategists say a popular US Treasury basis trade has dropped to its smallest scale in more than two years, reflecting fewer exploitable mispricings and reduced liquidity provision from hedge funds. The levered strategy, which arbitrages small futures–cash price gaps, has cooled as those spreads compressed, weakening an important source of Treasury demand. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup strategists say the trade is not disappearing but that momentum has waned as relative-value opportunities narrow; Citigroup’s head of US rates strategy Jason Williams said lower market dislocations and volatility have trimmed basis positions and could imply stronger-than-expected Treasury demand. Morgan Stanley estimates nominal notional of leveraged participation in Treasury basis trades fell from $1.26 trillion at the start of the year to about $900 billion.

Market sources say Gulf states will urge US President Trump to avoid further escalation with Iran.