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Shenwan Hongyuan says market drivers have shifted in H2 2026 from an AI narrative to recurring US–Iran conflict and energy supply shocks. US political pressure to push down oil pre-midterms to ease inflation is likely to strengthen, and enforcement appears stronger this cycle. Trump has tied a ceasefire and lower oil prices to the midterms and signalled oil could fall after the vote. Supply-side constraints include low inventories, disrupted strait transit, limited refinery flexibility and widening gasoline/diesel crack spreads; the forward curve shows a significant spot premium and the supply buffer is weaker than in 2018, with political price suppression occurring later. Under a neutral scenario, Shenwan expects prices to stay elevated before US midterms (central estimate ~$100/bbl); post-midterms oil could decline quarter-by-quarter in late‑2026 to early‑2027 toward roughly $75/bbl, though inventories and refined‑product bottlenecks will keep the central level above pre‑conflict norms.