Oxford Economics says its US business‑cycle indicator has fallen into the recession zone, driven by higher energy prices that have squeezed household real incomes and slower immigration that is weakening the employment growth trend. The firm cautions the indicator may not definitively signal a recession, citing continued strong productivity growth and a wealth effect that is sustaining consumer spending; households have not shown the consumption downgrading typical ahead of or during recessions.

Oxford Economics says its US business‑cycle indicator has fallen into the recession zone, driven by higher energy prices that have squeezed household real incomes and slower immigration that is weakening the employment growth trend. The firm cautions the indicator may not definitively signal a recession, citing continued strong productivity growth and a wealth effect that is sustaining consumer spending; households have not shown the consumption downgrading typical ahead of or during recessions. Oxford adds that AI infrastructure spending, elevated corporate profit margins and recent tax cuts are still underpinning business investment, while tariffs and policy uncertainty remain downside risks.