Escalation in Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, sending Indian equities to near six-month lows. Benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex fell 1.4%. All 16 major sectors declined. Heavyweight financials, banks and private banks slipped 1.7–2%; state-owned bank index fell 2.4%. As the world’s third-largest oil importer, higher crude will raise India’s import bill, add to inflationary pressure and compress corporate margins.

CITIC Securities says US equities have hit fresh highs on renewed app adoption and hardware repair, and overseas markets should no longer be treated as a driver for China A-shares. Despite weak sentiment, the firm maintains a rangebound A-share view for the year and identifies the period around Q3 earnings as the last meaningful buying window; the probability of an index recovery this year is materially higher than that of new lows. With corporate earnings trending up, macro risks visible and sentiment depressed, a large index correction is judged unlikely. CITIC tested five recovery scenarios for the Shanghai Composite and concludes that, assuming sector cyclicals improve and short-term incremental funds remain limited, an upside led by tech leaders, resource/energy-chemical and financial weights best reconciles fundamentals and liquidity. Stay constructive during the market pause; position into AI and energy/chemicals.

日本央行會議紀要：多位成員表示，日本央行正逐步轉向一個需要關注將基礎通脹穩定在2%附近的階段，而不是尋求推動通脹上升。