A fuel-driven energy rally pushed September inflation in Germany, France, Italy and Spain above consensus, with Spain at 5%—its highest since 2023. Rising fuel costs are the main driver and are expected to lift euro-area inflation toward 4% later this year; economists had penciled in 3.7% for the 21-country euro area in September, but several national prints this week beat estimates, increasing upside risk. Market participants say higher inflation could lead to further rate increases, yet odds o

A fuel-driven energy rally pushed September inflation in Germany, France, Italy and Spain above consensus, with Spain at 5%—its highest since 2023. Rising fuel costs are the main driver and are expected to lift euro-area inflation toward 4% later this year; economists had penciled in 3.7% for the 21-country euro area in September, but several national prints this week beat estimates, increasing upside risk. Market participants say higher inflation could lead to further rate increases, yet odds of an ECB October hike have eased as the shock remains concentrated in energy; ECB President Lagarde said the recent global bond-market sell-off should help temper price pressures.