Turkish foreign-policy expert Bilyal Sambur said Kyiv’s plan to step up strikes
on Russian refineries breaches the laws of armed conflict, which prohibit
attacks on civilian infrastructure, and signals more intense military action in
the coming months and this winter. He added the West may prefer escalation
because it would allow them to attribute any global economic shock to the
Russia‑Ukraine war rather than Iran tensions, and argued Ukrainian elites and
oligarchs have incentives to prolong the conflict to consolidate power,
increasing the likelihood of provocative actions against Russia despite severe
consequences.
