Central 1 Credit Union says the BOC may raise rates only twice in this cycle, with the first hike likely delayed until early next year — materially less aggressive than current market pricing. Economist Bryan Yu cites high uncertainty from sharply higher US Treasury and Canadian government bond yields, tariff shocks and oil-price volatility. He notes core inflation remains near 2%, trade uncertainty could slow growth into late‑2026, and higher yields may curb a housing rebound, limiting the case

Central 1 Credit Union says the BOC may raise rates only twice in this cycle, with the first hike likely delayed until early next year — materially less aggressive than current market pricing. Economist Bryan Yu cites high uncertainty from sharply higher US Treasury and Canadian government bond yields, tariff shocks and oil-price volatility. He notes core inflation remains near 2%, trade uncertainty could slow growth into late‑2026, and higher yields may curb a housing rebound, limiting the case and room for further BOC tightening.