Analyst Eamonn Sheridan says a Gulf of Mexico storm is forecast to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and may strike oil and gas infrastructure. Offshore areas along the storm track produce about 15% of US crude and 5% of US gas; as many as six refineries could be affected. US refining capacity is roughly 18 mln bpd, about half in Gulf Coast states, so fuel supply risk from the storm could match crude disruption; diesel prices are at historic highs. Middle East export fl

Analyst Eamonn Sheridan says a Gulf of Mexico storm is forecast to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and may strike oil and gas infrastructure. Offshore areas along the storm track produce about 15% of US crude and 5% of US gas; as many as six refineries could be affected. US refining capacity is roughly 18 mln bpd, about half in Gulf Coast states, so fuel supply risk from the storm could match crude disruption; diesel prices are at historic highs. Middle East export flows had improved but recent escalation offsets that: Saudi airport was hit twice Monday evening and fighting between Saudi forces and Iran-backed Houthi fighters has intensified, with Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces advancing backed by Saudi air strikes. Diplomatic signals offer little relief. Sheridan assesses the risk balance is more supportive of oil remaining near $100/bbl than declining, unless the storm weakens or Middle East tensions ease.