【期貨熱點追蹤】厄爾尼諾減產陰霾逼近，印尼生柴政策醞釀升級！短期天量庫存與遠期供給收縮激烈碰撞，棕櫚油市場變盤在即？

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said ship-to-ship transshipments in the Gulf of Oman are sustaining Middle East exports and warned that without them oil could reach $200/bbl, adding Western inventories have little left to draw on. STS activity has surged in recent weeks; some estimates put flows through the Strait of Hormuz at or above pre-war ~20 mln b/d. Hardy said the energy shock is turning into a shipping crisis: shuttle movements through the Strait are highly inefficient, tying up global tanker capacity and driving freight to record levels. Data show average daily earnings for crude tankers topped $500,000/day in early October, roughly ten times the 2025 average. Saudi-to-Rotterdam transport costs have jumped from about $2/bbl to over $35/bbl, adding further upward pressure on fuel prices.

LME non-ferrous metals inventory: copper 233,025 t (-2,200 t); aluminum 238,875 t (no change); zinc 126,850 t (-575 t); nickel 282,864 t (-1,314 t); lead 347,125 t (-750 t); tin 4,265 t (-45 t).