Russia's consumer prices climbed 6.35% YoY in September, above the 6.3% consensus and 0.35% MoM, remaining well above the central bank's 4% target. Seasonal falls in fruit and vegetable prices limited part of the rise, but regulated price increases including utilities pushed weekly inflation from 0.12% to 0.96%. CentroCredit's chief economist says a further increase to the key rate, currently 14%, has become a realistic prospect after prior expectations the Bank of Russia would hold through year

Russia's consumer prices climbed 6.35% YoY in September, above the 6.3% consensus and 0.35% MoM, remaining well above the central bank's 4% target. Seasonal falls in fruit and vegetable prices limited part of the rise, but regulated price increases including utilities pushed weekly inflation from 0.12% to 0.96%. CentroCredit's chief economist says a further increase to the key rate, currently 14%, has become a realistic prospect after prior expectations the Bank of Russia would hold through year-end. The Bank of Russia meets on Oct. 23; it last month paused planned rate cuts for the first time since June 2025 amid inflation risks from fuel-supply disruptions and higher government spending. The bank has raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 6–7%, implying a seventh consecutive year above target. Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are disrupting fuel markets, and the fiscal deficit is now expected to be about twice the original plan, adding further upward pressure on prices.