CITIC Securities says oil stabilisation, softer-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and downgrades to Fed rate-hike odds have not reversed the rise in global long-term yields. The firm attributes higher yields to persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand—trillions in investment have driven North America out of the post-crisis low-growth, low-rate norm. A sustained high-rate global environment is likely until an inflection in the AI investment cycle. Demand relatively insen

CITIC Securities says oil stabilisation, softer-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and downgrades to Fed rate-hike odds have not reversed the rise in global long-term yields. The firm attributes higher yields to persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand—trillions in investment have driven North America out of the post-crisis low-growth, low-rate norm. A sustained high-rate global environment is likely until an inflection in the AI investment cycle. Demand relatively insensitive to elevated overseas rates is concentrated in North American AI and sectors tied to expanded Chinese central fiscal spending. Former outperformers such as offshore exporters and resource plays face pressure. In weak demand conditions, assets benefiting from supply rationalization are scarce; the unwinding of excessive domestic competition next year merits attention. Tactical positioning: in the near term use cyclical, high-momentum sectors and supply-rationalization beneficiaries to cope with high rates; closely monitor the AI investment-cycle turning point.