An IMF official said market participants are appropriately pricing fiscal risks and uncertainty.

IMF expects global growth to accelerate next year if emerging and advanced economies pick up. It forecasts advanced economies’ expansion to slow from 2.1% this year to 1.8% next year. The US is projected to grow 2.3% (up from 2.2% in July). France is singled out as most severely affected, with GDP forecast at 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2027—each 0.2 percentage point below the IMF’s July projection. Germany’s 2027 growth is seen at 1.1%; the UK at 1.2% as energy prices and high interest rates weigh on consumption.

Japanese-linked tankers have begun a cautious return to direct carriage of Middle East crude for the first time since fighting began in February, though freight and logistics costs remain elevated. Over the past seven months risk-averse Japanese refiners and shipowners largely avoided Gulf routes, using long-distance ship-to-ship transfers off India and Southeast Asia to limit exposure—increasing seller dependence and forgoing higher freight margins. Vessel-tracking shows Idemitsu Kosan’s VLCC Idemitsu Maru left the Gulf in April and arrived in Japan earlier this month with a full cargo of Oman crude loaded at Mina al Fahal. Shipbrokers say at least two other Japanese-controlled VLCCs are expected to call Fujairah in the coming days to load crude bound for Japan.