Barclays economist Brian Tan says that despite September CPI unexpectedly rising
to 7.2% YoY (from August's 6.1%), the Philippine central bank is unlikely to
deliver a 50bp policy-rate hike later this month. Tan said policymakers remain
hawkish but concerns about weak domestic growth—Q2 GDP growth slowed to 2.3%
from 2.8% in Q1—should deter a large move. Barclays maintains its call for a
25bp hike in October and another 25bp in December.
