CITIC Securities says ETF inflows and central-bank buying may already have lifted gold's floor. The firm views the medium-term outlook as constructive: if US‑Iran tensions ease before the US midterms, improved oil-price expectations could create a predictable window for easing market tightening expectations and slow the rise in US Treasury yields. That dynamic, together with reduced futures selling and continued ETF buying, would support gold price repair. On the sector, using a $4,000/oz 2026 f

CITIC Securities says ETF inflows and central-bank buying may already have lifted gold's floor. The firm views the medium-term outlook as constructive: if US‑Iran tensions ease before the US midterms, improved oil-price expectations could create a predictable window for easing market tightening expectations and slow the rise in US Treasury yields. That dynamic, together with reduced futures selling and continued ETF buying, would support gold price repair. On the sector, using a $4,000/oz 2026 floor estimate CITIC calculates a gold-sector PE trough around 15x; under a $4,200/oz assumption the sector's 2026/2027 PEs are about 15x/12x, implying the valuation bottom could be re‑tested. Gold equities typically lead bullion on the upside; CITIC's gold index has already rallied over 20% from its trough, so a stabilizing gold price would be a key signal for a broader sector rebound.