Galaxy Securities says a super El Niño has formed and will inject a forward
weather premium, supporting near-term strength in soybean meal, rapeseed meal,
the three major vegetable oils and white sugar; corn, hogs and cotton are
expected to trade sideways. US soybean downside appears fully priced, which
should lift import costs and reinforce soybean meal gains alongside temporary
domestic supply tightness; rapeseed meal will track soybean meal. Oils receive
three supports: weather premium, stronger crude boosting biodiesel demand, and
higher bean-derived costs as US soybean weakness is exhausted. White sugar
strength is driven by El Niño-triggered global output risk; raw sugar has
firmed, domestic-international spreads narrowed, and Zhengzhou sugar is
supported by rising import-cost parity. Corn faces a new-crop supply vs.
state-procurement tug-of-war — monitor procurement timing and new-crop opening
prices. Hog supply remains loose; a sustained rebound likely needs seasonal
pickling/curing demand or concentrated second-cycle restocking to catalyze.
Cotton faces new-crop pressure offset by procurement-cost floors; direction will
depend on seed-cotton purchase prices, collection progress and whether
peak-season orders materialize.
