The IMF said on Thursday that a prolonged Middle East war and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure are the largest economic risks for Middle East and Central Asia economies. Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said the conflict has imposed highly uneven shocks, with countries directly affected under severe strain. Pre-war supply surpluses, alternative routes, demand adjustment and large inventory draws have m

The IMF said on Thursday that a prolonged Middle East war and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure are the largest economic risks for Middle East and Central Asia economies. Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said the conflict has imposed highly uneven shocks, with countries directly affected under severe strain. Pre-war supply surpluses, alternative routes, demand adjustment and large inventory draws have mitigated the energy shock so far, but inventories have declined and spare capacity is tighter—another supply disruption could trigger a much larger price adjustment. The IMF projects the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region to grow 3.3% in 2025, contract 1.3% in 2026 and recover 6.6% in 2027, with significant divergence across economies.