Citic Securities says global memory-chip stocks have become more volatile and
have notably underperformed other sectors since October. Alongside macro
headwinds — rising oil-price volatility and renewed inf and rate expectations —
market attention has turned to progress on ChangXin Technology’s 4F² DRAM
process. Investors fear a Chinese wafer‑fab breakthrough in high‑margin server
DDR5 could weaken overseas suppliers’ capacity-based pricing power. DRAM remains
dominated by 6F² cell architecture; deployment of 4F² depends on Samsung and
ChangXin progress. 4F² is still in early validation; Citic flags yield, output,
gross margins and downstream customer qualification as the key metrics to watch
and judges near- to mid-term industry impact likely limited. The firm recommends
focusing on investment opportunities in HDD, DRAM and NAND names.
